Starters Can't Win Without Closers

Here in Kansas City, the Royals have recently reached an agreement with Joakim Soria, their young electric closer, to pay him millions of dollars as far as 2014 if he continues to pitch well. This year he has converted 11 of 11 save opportunities. He currently owns a 0.98 ERA. Before his last save against the Florida Marlins he had not allowed a single run, but with one out in the ninth inning, he surrendered a two-run home run. With the Marlins mounting a comeback, that homerun pulled them to within one run. I wondered how he would react to some adversity, seeing as how he hadn't had any all season. He struck out the next two batters to preserve the win.

He has been so good that there has been much debate as to whether the Royals might be better served with him in the starting rotation instead of anchoring the bullpen. So, which is more important, a good starter, or a good closer?

Stat geeks will tell you that there's not much to debate here. A good starter can provide 200 quality innings per season, whereas an elite closer on a good team might only be used in about 70 games. Therefore, there is much more "value" in a starter than a closer.

But I'm not a stat geek, so I don't see things in black and white. I've played the game and I both appreciate and respect the human element, even if it is difficult to quantify.

Let's look at the case of the Atlanta Braves. The Braves won their division an incredible 14 straight seasons (the next highest division winning streak in history is owned by the Yankees with eight). That is 14 consecutive trips to the playoffs. Do you know how many times they won the World Series? Once. One big reason for this was their closer, Mark Wohlers, was at the top of his game that postseason. They had virtually the same starting rotation for a majority of their postseason run including three future hall of famers: Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, and John Smoltz.

Prior to the appearance of El Matador, Joakim "When I pitch, you no Scoria," the Royals had some dismal options at closer. When we moved to Kansas City in 2006, I attended a handful of games towards the end of the season. No lead was safe. Ambiorix Burgos blew a franchise record number of saves that year. He threw really, really hard. Problem was, he couldn't pitch. Then, in the off-season, the Royals picked up a kid from Mexico for a song from the San Diego Padres. A week later, he threw a perfect game in a Mexican Winter League. Before the end of the 2007 season, Soria was the closer, and was doing a great job. The bullpen, which had been a major weakness, had become one of the Royals' strongest assets.

Because the Royals are, well, the Royals, and their offense can struggle to put runs on the board, a lock-down closer is much more important than a starter. Some of the recent Red Sox lineups could afford to close by committee because they could out-hit and out-score most opponents.

Moving Joba Chamberlain to the starting rotation is probably a good idea for the New York Yankees. Their starters are having some trouble and they already have an amazing closer. But moving Soria to the rotation this season is probably not a good idea. Their starters have been good. It's most likely the best starting rotation they've had in years. And, if Soria starts, who is going to close? They have some good pitchers in the bullpen, but right now, they have a bonafide closer who can be counted on to finish games. Closing out games takes a different kind of mentality, and not everyone can do it, no matter how good a pitcher is.

Top-shelf starters are great. But even the best pitchers have to eventually turn the game over to the bullpen. If there's no one to close out the game and preserve the lead, an ace could rack up a load of no-decisions that shoulda, coulda, woulda been wins.

True aces are tough to come by. If you knew for sure that Soria would be an ace, then you should probably find someone to replace him as closer and start the transition. However, there's an old saying that goes something like this: If it ain't broke, don't fix it. For now he's found a niche and he's more important to the club in his current role. But who knows what the future holds?