Season Preview: For What It's Worth: Part III

I have been really busy lately, but the other reason that I haven't written for some time is because I got tired of previewing these teams. Expert analysts do it every year, and they get it wrong more often than not, so who do I think I am to be able to accurately predict who will win a division pennant in 2008? I'm nobody really. Just a guy with a blog about baseball. So from now on I thought maybe I would just put teams in a hat and draw winners. That's would be just about as accurate, right? Well, if you know me, you know I'm a little more creative than that.

To determine my prediction for the National League East Division, I broke out the old Triple Play game for the Xbox (Triple Play 2002). I simulated 20 seasons, and averaged out the standings. This game is so old, that the Washington Nationals were the Montreal Expos at the time. None of the information in the game has any bearing on how teams might do in 2008, but I figured, "why not?"

National League East Division

On Top of Their Game: The New York Mets edged out the Atlanta Braves in my out-dated video game experiment. This may actually prove to be much more accurate for 2008 than it was for 2002. I looked up the final standings for '02 and found that the Braves ran away with the division, 19 games or more ahead of all comers. In second that year were the Expos (who finished dead-last in the video game simulations). And who finished at the bottom in real-life? The Mets, six games under .500. So, maybe video game simulations are not the best way to determine pennant winners. But, six years later, Triple Play 2002 might have it right. Although the powerful infield of Philadelphia will give them plenty of competition, I would have chosen the Mets in this division, even without the electronic assistance.

Tough Luck: As I said before, the Montreal Expos finished last in the video game, and by an astounding margin. In the actual 2002 season, however, they were second in the division, and the only team within spitting distance of the Braves (at 19 games back, you'd better have a world record holding watermelon seed spitter on your team). But, since the Expos are no longer around (and my Expos hat is now hardly ever recognized), we'll have to insert the Washington Nationals as the lowliest of teams in the NL East. Truthfully, without doing any research on the subject, I would have to disagree and choose the Florida Marlins after trading away their two all stars to Detroit. I have learned, however, never to argue with technology, so in this case, the Nationals go down the tube.

Future ESPN Headline: "Santana Sweeps Cy Young Voting." Take who has been the most dominant pitcher in the offensive-heavy American League and put him up against lineups with 8 hitters and one pitcher, and you get a guaranteed Cy Young award. If you consider that pitcher an automatic out, as he usually is, Johan Santana would only need to get 24 outs from guys who can actually hit. Of course, with two outs in the 9th inning of a possible perfect game, I doubt any manager is going to send the relief pitcher out to the plate to hit for himself, but you get the point. Santana, if healthy, should have a monster year. And New York expects nothing less in return for the monster contract he signed this off-season. Then again, he could sputter along just like Pedro Martinez has since he signed with the Mets. Who knows? Maybe the Twins got rid of Johan just in time. Either way, sink or float, Johann Santana will be the story of the year in the NL East, and if all goes according to plan, the Mets coast into the World Series.