I've had enough of the previews. I definitely won't be doing that again. What about my American League predictions? Angels in the West, Red Sox in the East (although the "Rays" are having an abnormally good Spring Training -- too bad it doesn't count), and the Tigers in the Central division. There seems to be a strong correlation to spending here. Hmm...
For the last place teams, who cares? Oakland, Baltimore, and Minnesota, if you do. That's right. The Royals won't be staying in the cellar this season. I think they might be able to finish as high as third in the division. But, we'll see. That's why you play all 162 games. Sometimes (more often, than not) teams don't perform as expected. On paper, this team or that team may appear to be the clear favorites. Luckily, they don't play on paper. They play on grass and dirt and sometimes that cool turf made of a bunch of frayed pieces of plastic on a bed of ground rubber tires. I for one am extremely anxious for the season to begin.
On a side note, did anyone see Joey Gathright's leap in the Spring Training game the other day? Wow. I read about it first, then found the video. This guy's athletic ability is sick. If you search for his name in YouTube you'll find old videos of him jumping over cars. Anyway, just thought I'd share that with you.
Showing posts with label 2008 Season Preview. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2008 Season Preview. Show all posts
Wednesday, March 26, 2008
Thursday, March 13, 2008
Season Preview: For What It's Worth: Part III
I have been really busy lately, but the other reason that I haven't written for some time is because I got tired of previewing these teams. Expert analysts do it every year, and they get it wrong more often than not, so who do I think I am to be able to accurately predict who will win a division pennant in 2008? I'm nobody really. Just a guy with a blog about baseball. So from now on I thought maybe I would just put teams in a hat and draw winners. That's would be just about as accurate, right? Well, if you know me, you know I'm a little more creative than that.
To determine my prediction for the National League East Division, I broke out the old Triple Play game for the Xbox (Triple Play 2002). I simulated 20 seasons, and averaged out the standings. This game is so old, that the Washington Nationals were the Montreal Expos at the time. None of the information in the game has any bearing on how teams might do in 2008, but I figured, "why not?"
National League East Division
On Top of Their Game: The New York Mets edged out the Atlanta Braves in my out-dated video game experiment. This may actually prove to be much more accurate for 2008 than it was for 2002. I looked up the final standings for '02 and found that the Braves ran away with the division, 19 games or more ahead of all comers. In second that year were the Expos (who finished dead-last in the video game simulations). And who finished at the bottom in real-life? The Mets, six games under .500. So, maybe video game simulations are not the best way to determine pennant winners. But, six years later, Triple Play 2002 might have it right. Although the powerful infield of Philadelphia will give them plenty of competition, I would have chosen the Mets in this division, even without the electronic assistance.
Tough Luck: As I said before, the Montreal Expos finished last in the video game, and by an astounding margin. In the actual 2002 season, however, they were second in the division, and the only team within spitting distance of the Braves (at 19 games back, you'd better have a world record holding watermelon seed spitter on your team). But, since the Expos are no longer around (and my Expos hat is now hardly ever recognized), we'll have to insert the Washington Nationals as the lowliest of teams in the NL East. Truthfully, without doing any research on the subject, I would have to disagree and choose the Florida Marlins after trading away their two all stars to Detroit. I have learned, however, never to argue with technology, so in this case, the Nationals go down the tube.
Future ESPN Headline: "Santana Sweeps Cy Young Voting." Take who has been the most dominant pitcher in the offensive-heavy American League and put him up against lineups with 8 hitters and one pitcher, and you get a guaranteed Cy Young award. If you consider that pitcher an automatic out, as he usually is, Johan Santana would only need to get 24 outs from guys who can actually hit. Of course, with two outs in the 9th inning of a possible perfect game, I doubt any manager is going to send the relief pitcher out to the plate to hit for himself, but you get the point. Santana, if healthy, should have a monster year. And New York expects nothing less in return for the monster contract he signed this off-season. Then again, he could sputter along just like Pedro Martinez has since he signed with the Mets. Who knows? Maybe the Twins got rid of Johan just in time. Either way, sink or float, Johann Santana will be the story of the year in the NL East, and if all goes according to plan, the Mets coast into the World Series.
To determine my prediction for the National League East Division, I broke out the old Triple Play game for the Xbox (Triple Play 2002). I simulated 20 seasons, and averaged out the standings. This game is so old, that the Washington Nationals were the Montreal Expos at the time. None of the information in the game has any bearing on how teams might do in 2008, but I figured, "why not?"
National League East Division
On Top of Their Game: The New York Mets edged out the Atlanta Braves in my out-dated video game experiment. This may actually prove to be much more accurate for 2008 than it was for 2002. I looked up the final standings for '02 and found that the Braves ran away with the division, 19 games or more ahead of all comers. In second that year were the Expos (who finished dead-last in the video game simulations). And who finished at the bottom in real-life? The Mets, six games under .500. So, maybe video game simulations are not the best way to determine pennant winners. But, six years later, Triple Play 2002 might have it right. Although the powerful infield of Philadelphia will give them plenty of competition, I would have chosen the Mets in this division, even without the electronic assistance.
Tough Luck: As I said before, the Montreal Expos finished last in the video game, and by an astounding margin. In the actual 2002 season, however, they were second in the division, and the only team within spitting distance of the Braves (at 19 games back, you'd better have a world record holding watermelon seed spitter on your team). But, since the Expos are no longer around (and my Expos hat is now hardly ever recognized), we'll have to insert the Washington Nationals as the lowliest of teams in the NL East. Truthfully, without doing any research on the subject, I would have to disagree and choose the Florida Marlins after trading away their two all stars to Detroit. I have learned, however, never to argue with technology, so in this case, the Nationals go down the tube.Future ESPN Headline: "Santana Sweeps Cy Young Voting." Take who has been the most dominant pitcher in the offensive-heavy American League and put him up against lineups with 8 hitters and one pitcher, and you get a guaranteed Cy Young award. If you consider that pitcher an automatic out, as he usually is, Johan Santana would only need to get 24 outs from guys who can actually hit. Of course, with two outs in the 9th inning of a possible perfect game, I doubt any manager is going to send the relief pitcher out to the plate to hit for himself, but you get the point. Santana, if healthy, should have a monster year. And New York expects nothing less in return for the monster contract he signed this off-season. Then again, he could sputter along just like Pedro Martinez has since he signed with the Mets. Who knows? Maybe the Twins got rid of Johan just in time. Either way, sink or float, Johann Santana will be the story of the year in the NL East, and if all goes according to plan, the Mets coast into the World Series.
Saturday, February 16, 2008
Season Preview: For What It's Worth: Part II
National League Central Division
Top of the Heap: This year the Milwaukee Brewers will finish the job and the win the division they led most of the 2007 season, only to crumble and allow the Chicago Cubs to steal the pennant. The Cubbies, however, will make things close. Neither team has an outstanding starting rotation, but both teams have an incredible pitcher on the staff. Carlos Zambrano will take the mound opening day for Chicago, and hopefully, he'll be able to get along with his teammates this season. Milwaukee's Ben Sheets has Cy Young worthy stuff, but if Cy Young were injured half as much as Sheets, the coveted pitching award would have another namesake. The Brewers need Sheets to be at full strength to anchor the pitching staff. In the bullpen, Milwaukee picked up some interesting additions, including the once-fantasy-king-Canadian-closer, Eric Gagne. Back in the day (you know, before all of this steroid testing stuff), this guy was breaking the century mark with his fastball. But he's also had some injury issues, and may have lost his "mojo."
The Brewers' lineup looks to be the toughest 1-8 in the Central Division, again followed closely by the Cubs. The question will be whether the young talent in Milwaukee, like Ryan Braun (NL Rookie of the Year, .324 BA) and Price Fielder (119 RBI, 50 HR) can top or even match what they were able to do in 2007. If they can, they should be able to top the Cubs in the Central Division.
Better Luck Next Year: If Zach Duke and the rest of the Pittsburgh Pirates proletarian pitching personnel are able to perform to their potential, this prediction may prove perfunctory. In other words, there's a chance the Pirates don't finish at the bottom of the Central Division barrel, but only if their pitching can produce. Even then, I don't think they can really contend. Pittsburgh's front office believes their position players all simultaneously under-performed, and so, saw no reason to make waves in the off-season to bolster their lineup. They could be right, then again, so could I.
Extra, Extra, Read All About It: Here's an early peek at the biggest headline of 2008 for the NL Central. Kosuke Fukudome wins the title of best "rookie" in the National League. I might be way off base on this, but I look for this Japanese power hitter to continue his offensive prowess here in the Big Leagues. He may be a veteran, but since it's his first year in Major League baseball, he'll be eligible for Rookie of the Year. About the only thing that may happen in the Central Division that could top this is the reemergence of a dominant pitching staff in St. Louis. Both Chris Carpenter and Mark Moulder are scheduled to return from injury and/or surgery mid-season. If they are able to recapture their past glory, they could help the Cardinals make a strong push for the division.
Top of the Heap: This year the Milwaukee Brewers will finish the job and the win the division they led most of the 2007 season, only to crumble and allow the Chicago Cubs to steal the pennant. The Cubbies, however, will make things close. Neither team has an outstanding starting rotation, but both teams have an incredible pitcher on the staff. Carlos Zambrano will take the mound opening day for Chicago, and hopefully, he'll be able to get along with his teammates this season. Milwaukee's Ben Sheets has Cy Young worthy stuff, but if Cy Young were injured half as much as Sheets, the coveted pitching award would have another namesake. The Brewers need Sheets to be at full strength to anchor the pitching staff. In the bullpen, Milwaukee picked up some interesting additions, including the once-fantasy-king-Canadian-closer, Eric Gagne. Back in the day (you know, before all of this steroid testing stuff), this guy was breaking the century mark with his fastball. But he's also had some injury issues, and may have lost his "mojo."The Brewers' lineup looks to be the toughest 1-8 in the Central Division, again followed closely by the Cubs. The question will be whether the young talent in Milwaukee, like Ryan Braun (NL Rookie of the Year, .324 BA) and Price Fielder (119 RBI, 50 HR) can top or even match what they were able to do in 2007. If they can, they should be able to top the Cubs in the Central Division.
Better Luck Next Year: If Zach Duke and the rest of the Pittsburgh Pirates proletarian pitching personnel are able to perform to their potential, this prediction may prove perfunctory. In other words, there's a chance the Pirates don't finish at the bottom of the Central Division barrel, but only if their pitching can produce. Even then, I don't think they can really contend. Pittsburgh's front office believes their position players all simultaneously under-performed, and so, saw no reason to make waves in the off-season to bolster their lineup. They could be right, then again, so could I.Extra, Extra, Read All About It: Here's an early peek at the biggest headline of 2008 for the NL Central. Kosuke Fukudome wins the title of best "rookie" in the National League. I might be way off base on this, but I look for this Japanese power hitter to continue his offensive prowess here in the Big Leagues. He may be a veteran, but since it's his first year in Major League baseball, he'll be eligible for Rookie of the Year. About the only thing that may happen in the Central Division that could top this is the reemergence of a dominant pitching staff in St. Louis. Both Chris Carpenter and Mark Moulder are scheduled to return from injury and/or surgery mid-season. If they are able to recapture their past glory, they could help the Cardinals make a strong push for the division.
Monday, February 4, 2008
Season Preview: For What It's Worth: Part I
National League West Division
Best in the West: The Arizona Diamondbacks held off the surging Colorado Rockies to close out their western division pennant in 2007, finishing 90-72 on the season. This year, their staff ace, sinker-baller Brandon Webb, will be complemented by Danny Haren, who was acquired from the Oakland A's in the off-season. Webb and Haren give the D-Backs the best top-of-the-rotation combination in the division, and perhaps in the entire National League. Any team that faces the Diamondbacks in a three-game series and draws these two right-handers will have a difficult time winning two out of three. And just imagine if Randy Johnson is anywhere close to being the Big Unit he was prior to injury trouble. Combine the pitching staff with young offensive talent on this squad, including Mark Reynolds, Eric Byrnes, Justin Upton, Stephen Drew, and Eric Young, and this team looks tough to top in the West.
Cellar Dweller: Are you looking for a punch-less line-up? I can save you the time and tell you that the San Francisco Giants are about as weak offensively as any team in the league. Barry Bonds (bless his heart) is gone. Pedro Feliz left and signed with the Phillies. Although they acquired Aaron Rowand in the off-season, I don't buy the idea that he can carry a team offensively. His numbers last year (309 BA, .374 OBP, .515 SLG, 27 HR, 89 RBI) came on a team with Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, and Ryan Howard in the batting order. Opposing teams pitched around Bonds for years, and held the Giants at bay. If Rowand is their only offensive punch, look for him to rack up the walks this year, as the Giants fail to rise from the bottom of the National League West. Their lone bright spot, and perhaps saving grace, could be their young, talented rotation. Barry Zito simply wasn't Barry Zito last season, and the Giants paid a good sum of money for Barry Zito last year. I'm sure they have had a talk with whoever it was that was pitching all of those games for him in route to 11-13, with a 4.53 ERA, and demanded that he get out of Dodge, so to speak, and to tell Barry to come back and pitch. Noah Lowry, Matt Cain, and Tim Linecum are other young pitchers that could be the key to a better finish for the Giants than they had in 2007.
Story of 2008: Although I stick with my prediction that Arizona will claim the Division Pennant in the end, there looks to be three serious contenders, and the winning this division may prove to big a dog-fight (but not one where any animals are actually injured, and sports superstars end up in the slammer). The biggest story of 2008 for the National League West will be the fierce competition between the D-Backs, the Rockies, and the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Rockies seem to have all of the key pieces from last season's amazing run back on the board, and the Dodgers made some interesting moves this off-season. Namely, the future hall of fame manager Joe Torre is now calling the shots in LA, and Andruw Jones will be patrolling center field at Dodger stadium. If these two in particular make the impact the Dodgers are hoping for, they might be able to pull of the upset and take the pennant.
Best in the West: The Arizona Diamondbacks held off the surging Colorado Rockies to close out their western division pennant in 2007, finishing 90-72 on the season. This year, their staff ace, sinker-baller Brandon Webb, will be complemented by Danny Haren, who was acquired from the Oakland A's in the off-season. Webb and Haren give the D-Backs the best top-of-the-rotation combination in the division, and perhaps in the entire National League. Any team that faces the Diamondbacks in a three-game series and draws these two right-handers will have a difficult time winning two out of three. And just imagine if Randy Johnson is anywhere close to being the Big Unit he was prior to injury trouble. Combine the pitching staff with young offensive talent on this squad, including Mark Reynolds, Eric Byrnes, Justin Upton, Stephen Drew, and Eric Young, and this team looks tough to top in the West.
Cellar Dweller: Are you looking for a punch-less line-up? I can save you the time and tell you that the San Francisco Giants are about as weak offensively as any team in the league. Barry Bonds (bless his heart) is gone. Pedro Feliz left and signed with the Phillies. Although they acquired Aaron Rowand in the off-season, I don't buy the idea that he can carry a team offensively. His numbers last year (309 BA, .374 OBP, .515 SLG, 27 HR, 89 RBI) came on a team with Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, and Ryan Howard in the batting order. Opposing teams pitched around Bonds for years, and held the Giants at bay. If Rowand is their only offensive punch, look for him to rack up the walks this year, as the Giants fail to rise from the bottom of the National League West. Their lone bright spot, and perhaps saving grace, could be their young, talented rotation. Barry Zito simply wasn't Barry Zito last season, and the Giants paid a good sum of money for Barry Zito last year. I'm sure they have had a talk with whoever it was that was pitching all of those games for him in route to 11-13, with a 4.53 ERA, and demanded that he get out of Dodge, so to speak, and to tell Barry to come back and pitch. Noah Lowry, Matt Cain, and Tim Linecum are other young pitchers that could be the key to a better finish for the Giants than they had in 2007.Story of 2008: Although I stick with my prediction that Arizona will claim the Division Pennant in the end, there looks to be three serious contenders, and the winning this division may prove to big a dog-fight (but not one where any animals are actually injured, and sports superstars end up in the slammer). The biggest story of 2008 for the National League West will be the fierce competition between the D-Backs, the Rockies, and the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Rockies seem to have all of the key pieces from last season's amazing run back on the board, and the Dodgers made some interesting moves this off-season. Namely, the future hall of fame manager Joe Torre is now calling the shots in LA, and Andruw Jones will be patrolling center field at Dodger stadium. If these two in particular make the impact the Dodgers are hoping for, they might be able to pull of the upset and take the pennant.
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