Tuesday, March 31, 2009

Spring, Stats, and Seduction

Spring Training is finishing up this week. The 2009 season officially opens Sunday night (check your local listings). If you're like me, you've been keeping an eye on your team, looking for signs that they'll be able to contend for their division, the league, and maybe even a world championship. And as the excitement builds towards Opening Weekend, let this post serve as your reality check.

Spring Training statistics mean absolutely nothing.

Need proof? Guess who leads the league with the most home runs this Spring. It's not the Red Sox. They're in a four-way tie for second place with the Giants, Rangers, and Brewers, all having knocked 44 out of the park. The Yankees? Nope. They're all the way down at #17, with 31 total taters. The current league leaders, with 49 dingers this spring, are the Kansas City Royals. Why is that so remarkable? The Royals finished 2009 fourth-to-last in that category, hitting a grand total of 120, over the 162-game season. For anyone without a calculator on hand, that works out to be three homeruns every four games. But this spring their averaging three homeruns every two games. If they could maintain that pace, they would double last years totals, which would trump the league-leading 235 hit by the White Sox in 2008. I think we can safely say the Royals will not lead the Majors in homeruns in '09 (although, I certainly wouldn't complain if they did).

No one will hit .400 for the season either, although players with more than 30 at-bats this spring with an average that high are easily found. It's safe to say this guy, currently carrying a bloated spring batting average of .460 into Opening Weekend, won't be ending the regular season in the mix for the batting title. Heck, he may not even end the season on a Major League roster.

So if you're pumped that your favorite player is batting .396, slugging .778, and has an on-base-percentage of .543, be prepared for those numbers to drop. Spring stats can be seductive, especially if you're into fantasy baseball and you're looking to snag a cheap sleeper pick in your draft (or if your team hasn't sniffed the playoffs for the past few... decades). But remember, it's a very, very long season. Everything finds a way of averaging out over the long haul. By the end of it, we'll have a better idea of who are the pretenders, and who are the contenders.

Tuesday, March 24, 2009

Japan Repeats as Classic Champs

Here are some great highlights from the World Baseball Classic championship, courtesy of MLB.com, via YouTube.

Monday, March 23, 2009

Random Thoughts Today

World Baseball Classic
My "coverage" of the World Baseball Classic didn't go so well. I'm a little disappointed that I wasn't able to dedicate more time to it. I missed the miracle of the Netherlands squeaking past the might Dominicans. And I missed it when they did it the second time to eliminate David Ortiz and company. I saw the highlights from the ninth inning of the elimination game between the United States and Puerto Rico lying on a bed in a room at La Quinta in Amarillo. This morning, I watched most of the replay of US vs. Japan, but stopped when I accidentally saw the final score while checking other baseball news. With the championship game to be played tonight between Korea and the defending WBC champions, Japan, I have a few thoughts on the Classic.

I'm truly sick of hearing sports radio hosts and sports writers tear down this event. That said, they make a few good points. First, the timing of the Classic is poor, at best. Perhaps Major League Baseball, if they truly are behind this event, should mandate a three week break in the regular season every four year to allow the best players in the game to join their countrymen and represent their Tierra Madre. There shouldn't be any doubt that more baseball fans would watch the Classic if it was the only show in town. Part of the trouble now is that fans are more concerned about what their team is doing in Spring Training, or how their college basketball bracket is shaping up in their office pool.

Second, and this may be related to the first point, the United States can't win this tournament unless they can consistently get its best players, particularly pitchers, to commit to play on a more regular basis.

Third, understandably, teams and fans worry about their superstar players getting hurt in what, at this point, amounts to little more than an international exhibition in their minds. These players make a lot of money. Teams have made enormous financial investments in the players on United States' roster, and can't afford for them to miss the first few months of the season. As a solution to the anxiety this causes, I wonder how good a team of the best college baseball players in the nation could be?

Just some thoughts.

Curt Schilling Retires
Curtis Montague Schilling announced today that he is calling it quits. The 42-year-old pitcher was a fierce competitor who, over the course of his 20 year career, won three World Series rings, including 2001 as the co-MVP, and the fabled bloody sock championship for the 2004 Red Sox. But, he missed the entire 2008 season because of shoulder trouble. Now he says it's time to hang up the cleats, "with no regrets."

I'm sure the debates will take place soon (or maybe in five years), but is Schilling Hall of Fame worthy? I'll leave that topic to the guys at ESPN and the like, but let me say this: Some of the most dominating, memorable playoff performances I have witnessed were when Schilling took the mound. But, you know, I don't have a vote on the Hall of Fame ballot.

Monday, March 9, 2009

How did you choose your team?

There are few decisions more important in a person’s life than choosing a Major League Baseball team. Marriage, career, and religious beliefs all have their places as the major life decisions. But do you realize that many people change those three much more than they would change their baseball team?

I am told that we have a divorce rate of 50% in this country (the math they use isn’t even close to being right but experts keep using the number) but those same people would never dream of leaving their beloved Dodgers, Red Sox or Cubs.

There was a time where a man got a job out of college and would retire with that same company nearly 40 years later after driving to the same office every day. Today, the average person will change jobs 6 or 7 times before the age of 50. (Citation needed) Would anybody respect a fan that changed teams 6 or 7 times in a 30 year stretch? They would probably celebrate a lot of World Series Championships and have a closet that closely resembled a MLB.com store.

Religious beliefs are something that sports fans can identify with when it comes to their teams. They refer to stadiums as cathedrals and spend more time praying when their team is down 3 runs in the 9th then they do over their food and as a family at night. People will take up and leave a religion because it takes too long yet have no problem going to a doubleheader and watching the highlights on sportscenter that night.

Choosing a baseball team is very, very, very, very important. You will live and die with this team for the rest of your life. They will determine which complete strangers you have a kinship with and which complete strangers you will disdain in a town which neither team has ever played. (see Red Sox vs. Yankees: Salt Lake City). Sadly, choosing your team will likely determine whether you favor a free market system (Yankee fans) or favor a regulated payroll system (both Florida Marlins fans).

So, how did I choose my team? Early on, I watched baseball on TV and didn’t care very much. My friend Tyler played little league baseball and he was on the Mets so I think I liked the Mets. When I discovered that Dale Murphy was a baseball player and a Mormon, I quickly changed my team to the Atlanta Braves. I was 9 or 10 at the time so don’t judge me too harshly. I bought braves hats, and felt a sense of pride each time they won the division and in 1995, they won the World Series. I couldn’t picture myself as anything other than a braves fan. I learned about Hank Aaron and watched the 1996 Olympics intently knowing that would be the Braves new home stadium. I felt a sense of retroactive pride with hammering hank and Smotlz, Glavine, and Maddux. Had I continued, I would have likely had a dog or son named chipper. But when I came back from my mission in 2001, my love for the braves was gone.

Being a braves fan was not as bad as being a cubs or red sox fan at the time but it wasn’t great either. The cubs and sox would be competitive every 5 – 10 years or so but would never threaten in the post season. The braves would steamroll through the division and then get crushed by a lesser team in either the divisional round or the NLCS. It was the equivalent of getting a good night kiss on the cheek each and every time you went on a date. Close to what you wanted but just a little off. It’s still better than the guy at home watching reruns of Mork and Mindy but not quite what you had in mind. Also, the braves had changed (no Dale Murphy) and I felt cheated that I didn’t know as much about baseball when I chose them. How could I be held to a team that I chose when I was 10 years old? I decided to reopen my fandom with the understanding that this would be the last time. Surely a 22 year old would be allowed a mulligan on such an important decision. I had no hometown team and my father and brothers couldn’t care less about baseball at the time. I kept the braves in as a backup but decided that any team was up for grabs.

If I chose it based on proximity, then it would have been the diamondbacks or the rockies. If I chose it based on vacation destination then it would have been the Dodgers, Angels, Marlins or the Mariners. I knew that I didn’t want to be a cubs fan because I hate it when cubs fans whine. I didn’t want to be a fan of a small market team since the chances of them succeeding on the field were remote and unless I lived there, I didn’t want to sign up for the heartache. (A big pat on the back to all Royals fans. True baseball fans indeed.) I didn’t want a team whose NFL fans annoyed me so Philly, Oakland, and Cleveland were out. And I didn’t want a team whose NBA fans annoyed me so the whole states of Texas, California, New York, Chicago (sorry white sox) and New York. Last of all, I had chosen my team before as a front runner. I didn’t want to be part of the problem of fair weather fans (Yankees) who come and go with the fortunes of the team. I was in it for better or worse this time and there was no turning back. Base on the criteria I had set forth, I was a RED SOX fan.

In 2002 when I signed up, the Red Sox were popular but no where near the Yankees. The Yankees were the evil empire and the Red Sox were a team that had good night kisses on the cheek or worse for the last 84 years. They had momentum but no real result so I wasn’t a frontrunner. They were in a big market and did not geographically get eliminated from my search. It was weird to no longer recognize the 1995 championship of the braves but I felt good about my choice. Since then I have purchased hats, shirts, key chains, jackets, golf balls and 3 jerseys. I have seen 2 world championships and gotten several “Go Sox” cheers from complete strangers. I am a Red Sox fan for the long haul and they will be my team. The only way I would ever consider opening up my fandom again is if I move to a city with a team or a major league team comes to Salt Lake City. If a team comes here, then I will be their fan but till then: “GO RED SOX”

Friday, March 6, 2009

WBC: Japan vs. China

Just a few quick thoughts on the opening game of the World Baseball Classic:

Japan started a 22-year-old pitcher named Yu Darvish. In four innings of work, he struck out three, walked one, and held China hitless, earning the eventual win. This kid is totally legit and I believe it is only a matter of time until he is making headlines as a frontline starter here in the United States. Dice-K is good. But Darvish can be better. He may already be better. He throws hard (topping out at about 96-97mph at times), and has a good, tight slider. And his 6'5" frame atop the mound, along with his long arms and legs, give him the look of a prototypical ace.

Overall, Japan did what they should have done, which was to win the game. But they had some trouble scoring. They missed multiple opportunities with men in scoring position to get the big hit. I don't think that they'll repeat as WBC champions, but I'm not counting them out either. They have a tremendous amount of pride, and they know how to play the game. They will definitely be in the mix, and if they don't take the championship, whoever does, will likely have to beat them head to head.

Lastly, I don't know what it was, but I really liked their batting helmets. Nicely shaped, with a matte finish, almost like a hard version of their ball caps. It also looked like the team logo was stitched, a la the Chicago Cubs.

Today I'm going to watch the replay of the game that took place early this morning, and if I have any thoughts, I'll share them.

Monday, March 2, 2009

Simple Explanation of Baseball

My brother sent this to me a while ago, but I just found it again while cleaning out my inbox. It makes perfect sense to me.

Baseball is a game played by two teams, one out, the other in. The one that's in sends players out one at a time, to see if they can get in before they get out. If they get out before they get in, they come in, but it doesn't count. If they get in before they get out it does count.

When the ones out get three outs from the ones in before they get in without being out, the team that's out comes in and the team in goes out to get those going in out before they get in without being out. When both teams have been in and out nine times the game is over. The team with the most in without being out before coming in wins unless the ones in are equal. In which case, the last ones in go out to get the ones in out before they get in without being out. The game will end when each team has the same number of ins out but one team has more in without being out before coming in.


Yeah. What he said. Right, Lou?